Liga de Expansión · Friday, 23 October 2026 · 02:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Liga de Expansión average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 46%, the draw at 27% and Cruz Azul Hidalgo at 28%, from expected goals of 1.49 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. Liga de Expansión has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Alebrijes de Oaxaca have 8 in 13 this season (2 of 6 at home), Cruz Azul Hidalgo 7 in 13 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.49 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.09 for Cruz Azul Hidalgo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 13 | 62% | 23% | 46% |
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 13 | 54% | 23% | 54% |
More: Alebrijes de Oaxaca season stats · Cruz Azul Hidalgo season stats · Liga de Expansión table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.