Europa League · Thursday, 22 October 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Europa League average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Union St. Gilloise at 42%, the draw at 31% and Hapoel Beer Sheva at 27%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 0.76.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Union St. Gilloise have 5 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), Hapoel Beer Sheva 4 in 7 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Union St. Gilloise and 0.76 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 63% | 38% | 38% |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 7 | 57% | 29% | 57% |
More: Europa League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.