Conference League · Thursday, 22 October 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Conference League average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Monaco at 46%, the draw at 28% and SC Freiburg at 27%, from expected goals of 2.08 and 1.14.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Monaco have 3 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), SC Freiburg 5 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.08 for Monaco and 1.14 for SC Freiburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 7 | 43% | 14% | 57% |
| SC Freiburg | 6 | 83% | 50% | 67% |
More: Conference League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.