Kauno Žalgiris v Brann — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Conference League · Thursday, 22 October 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Conference League average is 59%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Kauno Žalgiris at 53%, the draw at 26% and Brann at 21%, from expected goals of 2.44 and 0.87.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Kauno Žalgiris have 17 in 30 this season (9 of 16 at home), Brann 18 in 23 (8 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 69%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 30 and 23 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 68%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.44 for Kauno Žalgiris and 0.87 for Brann. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Conference League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.