Europa League · Thursday, 22 October 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Europa League average is 59%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Dinamo Zagreb at 47%, the draw at 26% and NEC Nijmegen at 27%, from expected goals of 2.4 and 1.3.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dinamo Zagreb have 7 in 9 this season (3 of 5 at home), NEC Nijmegen 7 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 2.4 for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.3 for NEC Nijmegen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | 9 | 78% | 67% | 67% |
| NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 78% | 56% | 89% |
More: Europa League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.