Europa League · Thursday, 22 October 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Europa League average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts 1899 Hoffenheim at 36%, the draw at 29% and Lyon at 35%, from expected goals of 1.5 and 1.42.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. 1899 Hoffenheim have 6 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), Lyon 4 in 7 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.5 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.42 for Lyon. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 100% | 67% | 100% |
| Lyon | 7 | 57% | 29% | 57% |
More: Europa League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.