Premier League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 34% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 35%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 66% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Wadi Degla at 31%, the draw at 35% and National Bank of Egypt at 34%, from expected goals of 0.8 and 0.86.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 34% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 66% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 45% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Wadi Degla 2.90, draw 2.90, National Bank of Egypt 2.45.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Wadi Degla have 3 in 6 this season (0 of 3 at home), National Bank of Egypt 3 in 6 (0 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 38%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 37% and 36%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 34%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 23%, from expected goals of 0.8 for Wadi Degla and 0.86 for National Bank of Egypt. Folding in 30% of that view gives 31%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 34%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wadi Degla | 6 | 50% | 33% | 50% |
| National Bank of Egypt | 6 | 50% | 17% | 17% |
More: Wadi Degla season stats · National Bank of Egypt season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.