FA Cup · Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The FA Cup average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | no pick |
The result model puts United of Manchester at 51%, the draw at 25% and Altrincham at 24%, from expected goals of 1.67 and 1.06.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. United of Manchester have 0 in 0 this season, Altrincham 10 in 13 (4 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.67 for United of Manchester and 1.06 for Altrincham. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United of Manchester | 0 | — | — | — |
| Altrincham | 13 | 77% | 31% | 69% |
More: Altrincham season stats · FA Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.