Kvindeligaen (W) · Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Kvindeligaen (W) average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Køge W at 32%, the draw at 23% and Brøndby W at 45%, from expected goals of 1.56 and 1.87.
The league sets the starting point. Kvindeligaen (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Køge W have 9 in 10 this season (5 of 5 at home), Brøndby W 8 in 10 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 13 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 23%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 1.56 for Køge W and 1.87 for Brøndby W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Køge W season stats · Brøndby W season stats · Kvindeligaen (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.