Ligue 2 · Monday, 19 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Ligue 2 average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Rodez at 34%, the draw at 31% and Montpellier at 35%, from expected goals of 1.02 and 1.03.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 42% | -14% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 58% | +14% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 49% | -10% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Rodez 2.75, draw 3.30, Montpellier 2.20.
The league sets the starting point. Ligue 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rodez have 5 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), Montpellier 1 in 8 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 39%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.02 for Rodez and 1.03 for Montpellier. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez | 8 | 63% | 63% | 63% |
| Montpellier | 8 | 13% | 13% | 38% |
More: Rodez season stats · Montpellier season stats · Ligue 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.