Premier League · Monday, 19 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 40% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 35%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts AL Masry at 56%, the draw at 25% and Abu Qair Semad at 18%, from expected goals of 1.64 and 0.82.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 40% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 60% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | 41% | 47% | +6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: AL Masry 1.50, draw 3.50, Abu Qair Semad 7.00.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AL Masry have 2 in 6 this season (0 of 3 at home), Abu Qair Semad 1 in 6 (0 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 34% and 31%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 37% and 31%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.64 for AL Masry and 0.82 for Abu Qair Semad. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL Masry | 6 | 33% | 17% | 50% |
| Abu Qair Semad | 6 | 17% | 0% | 17% |
More: AL Masry season stats · Abu Qair Semad season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.