Super Liga · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 14:30. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 64% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Zemplín Michalovce at 44%, the draw at 22% and FK Košice at 35%, from expected goals of 2.07 and 1.83.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 64% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 36% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 60% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Zemplín Michalovce 3.10, draw 3.75, FK Košice 2.10.
The league sets the starting point. Super Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Zemplín Michalovce have 4 in 10 this season (2 of 6 at home), FK Košice 7 in 9 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 57%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 75%, from expected goals of 2.07 for Zemplín Michalovce and 1.83 for FK Košice. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zemplín Michalovce | 10 | 40% | 10% | 30% |
| FK Košice | 9 | 78% | 56% | 78% |
More: Zemplín Michalovce season stats · FK Košice season stats · Super Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.