Superettan · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 12:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 52% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts United Nordic at 42%, the draw at 26% and Norrby IF at 32%, from expected goals of 1.45 and 1.24.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 52% | -12% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 48% | +12% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 58% | -7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: United Nordic 2.70, draw 3.50, Norrby IF 2.15.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. United Nordic have 13 in 26 this season (9 of 13 at home), Norrby IF 12 in 26 (4 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.45 for United Nordic and 1.24 for Norrby IF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Nordic | 26 | 50% | 38% | 69% |
| Norrby IF | 26 | 46% | 31% | 62% |
More: United Nordic season stats · Norrby IF season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.