Belgian Cup · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 17:30. Final score 4–1 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 56% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts St. Truiden at 44%, the draw at 25% and Lommel United at 31%, from expected goals of 1.59 and 1.28.
The league sets the starting point. Belgian Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. St. Truiden have 5 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), Lommel United 3 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.59 for St. Truiden and 1.28 for Lommel United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 53%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | 8 | 63% | 50% | 50% |
| Lommel United | 8 | 38% | 38% | 25% |
More: St. Truiden season stats · Lommel United season stats · Belgian Cup and every competition we cover. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.