Kvindeligaen (W) · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 10:30. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 62% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Midtjylland W at 40%, the draw at 23% and Nordsjælland W at 37%, from expected goals of 1.77 and 1.71.
The league sets the starting point. Kvindeligaen (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Midtjylland W have 5 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), Nordsjælland W 6 in 10 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.77 for Midtjylland W and 1.71 for Nordsjælland W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midtjylland W | 10 | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| Nordsjælland W | 10 | 60% | 60% | 70% |
More: Midtjylland W season stats · Nordsjælland W season stats · Kvindeligaen (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.