Ligue 1 · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 19:45. Final score 2–1 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Lyon at 69%, the draw at 19% and Nice at 12%, from expected goals of 2.17 and 0.76.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 57% | 54% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 46% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 51% | -6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Lyon 1.83, draw 3.90, Nice 4.00.
The league sets the starting point. Ligue 1 has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lyon have 3 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), Nice 3 in 6 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 2.17 for Lyon and 0.76 for Nice. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Lyon season stats · Nice season stats · Ligue 1 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.