Ligue 1 · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 16:15. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Lorient at 37%, the draw at 24% and Monaco at 38%, from expected goals of 1.59 and 1.61.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 50% | 58% | +8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 50% | 42% | -8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 52% | 58% | +6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Lorient 3.50, draw 3.50, Monaco 2.10.
The league sets the starting point. Ligue 1 has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lorient have 3 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), Monaco 3 in 6 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.59 for Lorient and 1.61 for Monaco. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Lorient season stats · Monaco season stats · Ligue 1 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.