Liga de Expansión · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 19:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Leones Negros UDG at 66%, the draw at 18% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 16%, from expected goals of 2.53 and 1.21.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 59% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 41% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Leones Negros UDG 1.42, draw 4.75, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 6.50.
The league sets the starting point. Liga de Expansión has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Leones Negros UDG have 8 in 12 this season (4 of 5 at home), Alebrijes de Oaxaca 7 in 12 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 2.53 for Leones Negros UDG and 1.21 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones Negros UDG | 12 | 67% | 50% | 75% |
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 12 | 58% | 25% | 42% |
More: Leones Negros UDG season stats · Alebrijes de Oaxaca season stats · Liga de Expansión table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.