Liga Pro · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 20:00. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 60% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Leones del Norte at 46%, the draw at 30% and Emelec at 24%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 0.82.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 39% | 40% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 60% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 48% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Leones del Norte 1.90, draw 3.10, Emelec 4.20.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Leones del Norte have 11 in 32 this season (3 of 15 at home), Emelec 8 in 32 (3 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 33%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 32 and 32 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 38% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 1.26 for Leones del Norte and 0.82 for Emelec. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones del Norte | 32 | 34% | 9% | 47% |
| Emelec | 32 | 25% | 9% | 44% |
More: Leones del Norte season stats · Emelec season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.