1. SNL · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 14:00. Final score 5–0 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 63% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Koper at 65%, the draw at 20% and Brinje-Grosuplje at 15%, from expected goals of 2.21 and 0.97.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 63% | +8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 37% | -8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 57% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Koper 1.57, draw 3.70, Brinje-Grosuplje 5.00.
The league sets the starting point. 1. SNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Koper have 3 in 11 this season (2 of 4 at home), Brinje-Grosuplje 8 in 11 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.21 for Koper and 0.97 for Brinje-Grosuplje. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koper | 11 | 27% | 27% | 36% |
| Brinje-Grosuplje | 11 | 73% | 18% | 73% |
More: Koper season stats · Brinje-Grosuplje season stats · 1. SNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.