Kansallinen Liiga (W) · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 12:00. Final score 0–5 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 68% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts IF Gnistan at 17%, the draw at 20% and KuPS W at 63%, from expected goals of 1.14 and 2.31.
The league sets the starting point. Kansallinen Liiga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. IF Gnistan have 18 in 22 this season (9 of 11 at home), KuPS W 14 in 22 (7 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 75% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 22 and 22 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 75% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 70%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 1.14 for IF Gnistan and 2.31 for KuPS W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF Gnistan | 22 | 82% | 59% | 59% |
| KuPS W | 22 | 64% | 41% | 64% |
More: IF Gnistan season stats · KuPS W season stats · Kansallinen Liiga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.