Taça de Portugal · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 15:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | no pick |
The result model puts Fátima at 36%, the draw at 27% and Academico Viseu at 37%, from expected goals of 1.33 and 1.35.
The league sets the starting point. Taça de Portugal has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fátima have 0 in 0 this season, Academico Viseu 5 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.33 for Fátima and 1.35 for Academico Viseu. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fátima | 0 | — | — | — |
| Academico Viseu | 8 | 63% | 25% | 50% |
More: Academico Viseu season stats · Taça de Portugal and every competition we cover. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.