Taça de Portugal · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 19:45. Final score 3–3 (half-time 0–1). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | no pick |
The result model puts CF Os Belenenses at 32%, the draw at 27% and Arouca at 41%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 1.1.
The league sets the starting point. Taça de Portugal has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. CF Os Belenenses have 0 in 0 this season, Arouca 4 in 8 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.57 for CF Os Belenenses and 1.1 for Arouca. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 1 division apart, so the rating moves to 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Os Belenenses | 0 | — | — | — |
| Arouca | 8 | 50% | 25% | 38% |
More: Arouca season stats · Taça de Portugal and every competition we cover. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.