FA Cup · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 15:00. Final score 3–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 66% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Wealdstone at 29%, the draw at 22% and Worthing at 49%, from expected goals of 1.58 and 2.1.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Wealdstone have 8 in 13 this season (4 of 6 at home), Worthing 10 in 13 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 1.58 for Wealdstone and 2.1 for Worthing. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wealdstone | 13 | 62% | 46% | 62% |
| Worthing | 13 | 77% | 54% | 77% |
More: Wealdstone season stats · Worthing season stats · FA Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.