FA Cup · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 15:00. Final score 0–4 (half-time 0–3). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | no pick |
The result model puts Uxbridge at 55%, the draw at 23% and AFC Hornchurch at 22%, from expected goals of 1.91 and 1.14.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Uxbridge have 0 in 0 this season, AFC Hornchurch 8 in 13 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.91 for Uxbridge and 1.14 for AFC Hornchurch. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uxbridge | 0 | — | — | — |
| AFC Hornchurch | 13 | 62% | 15% | 31% |
More: AFC Hornchurch season stats · FA Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.