FA Cup · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 15:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | no pick |
The result model puts Sutton Utd at 48%, the draw at 26% and Truro City at 26%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 1.08.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sutton Utd have 5 in 13 this season (3 of 7 at home), Truro City 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.55 for Sutton Utd and 1.08 for Truro City. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 52%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton Utd | 13 | 38% | 8% | 38% |
| Truro City | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Sutton Utd season stats · Truro City season stats · FA Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.