FA Cup · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 15:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–1). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | no pick |
The result model puts Southend at 52%, the draw at 23% and Berkhamsted at 25%, from expected goals of 1.91 and 1.27.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Southend have 10 in 13 this season (5 of 6 at home), Berkhamsted 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.91 for Southend and 1.27 for Berkhamsted. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southend | 13 | 77% | 69% | 92% |
| Berkhamsted | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Southend season stats · FA Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.