Czech Liga · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 14:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Mlada Boleslav at 41%, the draw at 25% and Teplice at 35%, from expected goals of 1.59 and 1.45.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 53% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 47% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 53% | -8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.05, draw 3.50, Teplice 3.10.
The league sets the starting point. Czech Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Mlada Boleslav have 6 in 10 this season (2 of 4 at home), Teplice 4 in 10 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.59 for Mlada Boleslav and 1.45 for Teplice. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mlada Boleslav | 10 | 60% | 30% | 40% |
| Teplice | 10 | 40% | 40% | 50% |
More: Mlada Boleslav season stats · Teplice season stats · Czech Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.