FA Cup · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 15:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Kidderminster Harriers at 53%, the draw at 24% and Solihull Moors at 22%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kidderminster Harriers have 4 in 13 this season (0 of 7 at home), Solihull Moors 9 in 13 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 48% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.76 for Kidderminster Harriers and 1.05 for Solihull Moors. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 54%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kidderminster Harriers | 13 | 31% | 23% | 46% |
| Solihull Moors | 13 | 69% | 54% | 62% |
More: Kidderminster Harriers season stats · Solihull Moors season stats · FA Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.