Kansallinen Liiga (W) · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 13:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 68% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts HJS Akatemia W at 29%, the draw at 22% and Honka W at 49%, from expected goals of 1.56 and 2.07.
The league sets the starting point. Kansallinen Liiga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. HJS Akatemia W have 6 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), Honka W 4 in 8 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 70%, from expected goals of 1.56 for HJS Akatemia W and 2.07 for Honka W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HJS Akatemia W | 8 | 75% | 75% | 63% |
| Honka W | 8 | 50% | 25% | 63% |
More: HJS Akatemia W season stats · Honka W season stats · Kansallinen Liiga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.