Toppserien (W) · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 12:00. Final score 2–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 65% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Haugesund W at 37%, the draw at 24% and Molde W at 39%, from expected goals of 1.58 and 1.63.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Haugesund W have 14 in 18 this season (7 of 9 at home), Molde W 13 in 18 (6 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.58 for Haugesund W and 1.63 for Molde W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haugesund W | 18 | 78% | 39% | 72% |
| Molde W | 18 | 72% | 50% | 56% |
More: Haugesund W season stats · Molde W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.