Kvindeligaen (W) · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 12:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 60% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Copenhagen W at 43%, the draw at 24% and Odense Q W at 33%, from expected goals of 1.7 and 1.46.
The league sets the starting point. Kvindeligaen (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Copenhagen W have 8 in 10 this season (4 of 5 at home), Odense Q W 6 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.7 for FC Copenhagen W and 1.46 for Odense Q W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Copenhagen W | 10 | 80% | 50% | 70% |
| Odense Q W | 10 | 60% | 30% | 30% |
More: FC Copenhagen W season stats · Odense Q W season stats · Kvindeligaen (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.