Taça de Portugal · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 15:00. Final score 3–0 (half-time 2–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | no pick |
The result model puts Farense at 42%, the draw at 28% and AD Marco 09 at 29%, from expected goals of 1.31 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. Taça de Portugal has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Farense have 5 in 7 this season (3 of 4 at home), AD Marco 09 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 45%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 40% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.31 for Farense and 1.05 for AD Marco 09. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 40%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farense | 7 | 71% | 29% | 71% |
| AD Marco 09 | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Farense season stats · Taça de Portugal and every competition we cover. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.