NIFL Premiership · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 15:00. Final score 2–2 (half-time 1–2). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Carrick Rangers at 23%, the draw at 25% and Linfield at 53%, from expected goals of 1.05 and 1.72.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 54% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 46% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 51% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Carrick Rangers 3.30, draw 3.60, Linfield 1.85.
The league sets the starting point. NIFL Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Carrick Rangers have 6 in 11 this season (3 of 5 at home), Linfield 3 in 10 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.05 for Carrick Rangers and 1.72 for Linfield. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrick Rangers | 11 | 55% | 45% | 45% |
| Linfield | 10 | 30% | 10% | 30% |
More: Carrick Rangers season stats · Linfield season stats · NIFL Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.