Promotion League · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 14:30. Final score 3–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 66% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Breitenrain at 55%, the draw at 22% and Amical Saint-Prex at 23%, from expected goals of 2.02 and 1.25.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Breitenrain have 7 in 11 this season (3 of 5 at home), Amical Saint-Prex 8 in 11 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 70%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.02 for Breitenrain and 1.25 for Amical Saint-Prex. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breitenrain | 11 | 64% | 45% | 55% |
| Amical Saint-Prex | 11 | 73% | 55% | 64% |
More: Breitenrain season stats · Amical Saint-Prex season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.