NIFL Premiership · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 15:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Ballymena United at 53%, the draw at 25% and Crusaders FC at 23%, from expected goals of 1.71 and 1.04.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 55% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 45% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 54% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Ballymena United 1.60, draw 3.80, Crusaders FC 4.33.
The league sets the starting point. NIFL Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ballymena United have 5 in 10 this season (0 of 3 at home), Crusaders FC 10 in 11 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 67%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 56%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.71 for Ballymena United and 1.04 for Crusaders FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballymena United | 10 | 50% | 30% | 60% |
| Crusaders FC | 11 | 91% | 27% | 64% |
More: Ballymena United season stats · Crusaders FC season stats · NIFL Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.