FA Cup · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 15:00. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | no pick |
The result model puts Altrincham at 50%, the draw at 24% and United of Manchester at 26%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 1.21.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Altrincham have 10 in 13 this season (6 of 6 at home), United of Manchester 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.74 for Altrincham and 1.21 for United of Manchester. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham | 13 | 77% | 31% | 69% |
| United of Manchester | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Altrincham season stats · FA Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.