FA Cup · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 15:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 2–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | no pick |
The result model puts AFC Rushden & Diamonds at 53%, the draw at 21% and Morecambe at 26%, from expected goals of 2.28 and 1.56.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AFC Rushden & Diamonds have 0 in 0 this season, Morecambe 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 2.28 for AFC Rushden & Diamonds and 1.56 for Morecambe. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds | 0 | — | — | — |
| Morecambe | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Morecambe season stats · FA Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.