Taça de Portugal · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 20:15. Final score 3–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 51% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Academica at 35%, the draw at 29% and Amarante at 36%, from expected goals of 1.13 and 1.17.
The league sets the starting point. Taça de Portugal has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Academica have 3 in 7 this season (1 of 3 at home), Amarante 4 in 7 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.13 for Academica and 1.17 for Amarante. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 46%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Academica season stats · Amarante season stats · Taça de Portugal and every competition we cover. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.