Belgian Cup · Friday, 16 October 2026 · 19:30. Final score 3–0 (half-time 1–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts SK Beveren at 46%, the draw at 26% and Habay-la-Neuve at 28%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 1.14.
The league sets the starting point. Belgian Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SK Beveren have 5 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), Habay-la-Neuve 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.55 for SK Beveren and 1.14 for Habay-la-Neuve. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Beveren | 8 | 63% | 38% | 25% |
| Habay-la-Neuve | 0 | — | — | — |
More: SK Beveren season stats · Belgian Cup and every competition we cover. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.