Ligue 2 · Friday, 16 October 2026 · 19:00. Final score 4–2 (half-time 3–1). Before kick-off we rated it 50% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Reims at 53%, the draw at 24% and Dijon at 23%, from expected goals of 1.8 and 1.1.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 51% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 49% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 56% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Reims 1.70, draw 3.60, Dijon 4.33.
The league sets the starting point. Ligue 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Reims have 5 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), Dijon 4 in 8 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.8 for Reims and 1.1 for Dijon. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Reims season stats · Dijon season stats · Ligue 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.