1. Division · Friday, 16 October 2026 · 18:00. Final score 2–3 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts HB Koge at 44%, the draw at 26% and AB Copenhagen at 30%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 1.19.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 55% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 45% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 55% | -10% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: HB Koge 2.25, draw 3.60, AB Copenhagen 2.80.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. HB Koge have 5 in 10 this season (2 of 5 at home), AB Copenhagen 4 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.52 for HB Koge and 1.19 for AB Copenhagen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HB Koge | 10 | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| AB Copenhagen | 10 | 40% | 10% | 40% |
More: HB Koge season stats · AB Copenhagen season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.