Toppserien (W) · Friday, 16 October 2026 · 17:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Fortuna Ålesund W at 71%, the draw at 17% and Røa W at 11%, from expected goals of 2.4 and 0.85.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fortuna Ålesund W have 11 in 18 this season (5 of 8 at home), Røa W 10 in 18 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 18 and 18 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.4 for Fortuna Ålesund W and 0.85 for Røa W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Ålesund W | 18 | 61% | 39% | 61% |
| Røa W | 18 | 56% | 39% | 61% |
More: Fortuna Ålesund W season stats · Røa W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.