Taça de Portugal · Friday, 16 October 2026 · 20:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | no pick |
The result model puts Chaves at 35%, the draw at 29% and Os Marialvas at 37%, from expected goals of 1.16 and 1.2.
The league sets the starting point. Taça de Portugal has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chaves have 4 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), Os Marialvas 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 45%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 41% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.16 for Chaves and 1.2 for Os Marialvas. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 40%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves | 7 | 57% | 43% | 57% |
| Os Marialvas | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Chaves season stats · Taça de Portugal and every competition we cover. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.