Pro League · Friday, 16 October 2026 · 14:05. Final score 5–1 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 56% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Al-Dhafra at 39%, the draw at 23% and Dubai United at 38%, from expected goals of 1.72 and 1.68.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 56% | +0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 44% | 0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 59% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Al-Dhafra 2.55, draw 3.50, Dubai United 2.30.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al-Dhafra have 2 in 5 this season (1 of 2 at home), Dubai United 4 in 5 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 1.72 for Al-Dhafra and 1.68 for Dubai United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Dhafra | 5 | 40% | 20% | 40% |
| Dubai United | 5 | 80% | 80% | 100% |
More: Al-Dhafra season stats · Dubai United season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.