Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026 · 17:45. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 55% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Union St. Gilloise at 57%, the draw at 26% and Real Sociedad at 17%, from expected goals of 2.38 and 0.58.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Union St. Gilloise have 5 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), Real Sociedad 6 in 8 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 2.38 for Union St. Gilloise and 0.58 for Real Sociedad. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 63% | 38% | 38% |
| Real Sociedad | 8 | 75% | 50% | 63% |
More: Europa League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.