Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026 · 20:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 63% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Twente at 41%, the draw at 28% and FC Thun at 31%, from expected goals of 1.91 and 1.43.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Twente have 4 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), FC Thun 8 in 10 (6 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 68%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.91 for Twente and 1.43 for FC Thun. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twente | 8 | 50% | 50% | 63% |
| FC Thun | 10 | 80% | 70% | 70% |
More: Conference League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.