Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026 · 17:45. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Sparta Praha at 47%, the draw at 28% and Lillestrom at 25%, from expected goals of 2.05 and 1.02.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sparta Praha have 7 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), Lillestrom 12 in 22 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 22 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 2.05 for Sparta Praha and 1.02 for Lillestrom. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Praha | 10 | 70% | 40% | 40% |
| Lillestrom | 22 | 55% | 32% | 45% |
More: Europa League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.