Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026 · 17:45. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Riga at 38%, the draw at 30% and Kairat Almaty at 32%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 1.16.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Riga have 24 in 32 this season (13 of 16 at home), Kairat Almaty 15 in 27 (7 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 32 and 27 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 65% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Riga and 1.16 for Kairat Almaty. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga | 32 | 75% | 56% | 56% |
| Kairat Almaty | 27 | 56% | 30% | 48% |
More: Conference League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.