Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026 · 20:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 61% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts NEC Nijmegen at 26%, the draw at 28% and Levski Sofia at 46%, from expected goals of 1.12 and 2.09.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. NEC Nijmegen have 6 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), Levski Sofia 6 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 65% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.12 for NEC Nijmegen and 2.09 for Levski Sofia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 75% | 50% | 88% |
| Levski Sofia | 10 | 60% | 20% | 40% |
More: Europa League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.